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OSRS Gold Swap Rate and USD Price Dropping June 2019

OSRS Gold Price Update - June 2019

This is the first market update we'll be making at Runexch, where we look at the Runescape Gold market and tell you what is happening every month.  So far, June 2019 has been rough for the OSRS Gold market.  We've seen prices down across the board.  This is a trend which has actually been happening for the entirety of 2019.

The OSRS Gold price saw an initial surge in October-November, 2019 with the launch of OSRS Mobile.  This brought a bunch of new players to the platform, and also increased the playtime for the average user.  This came with a near instant surge in prices.  We don't have graphs showing the USD pricing back on these dates (we only began collecting these values in May, 2019).  What we do have is a full price history of the RS3 to OSRS exchange rate, which is visible here.

You'll notice the rate between each game changes drastically around OSRS Mobile launch, and continues all the way past December, 2019.  Some Gray Market sites have given us access to their order information, and we can see from there the same results.  

R2Pleasent Gold - Black Market Expert

We are excited to announce that R2Pleasent Gold will be providing us with up to date market data from "Gray Market" transactions.  Gray Markets are third party RS Gold traders, who trade RSGold for real money.  We do not condone breaking any in-game rules, but we are very interested in the economics of the RSGP market.  We could not provide a complete analysis without insight from third party transactions.  So we appreciate R2Pleasent Gold helping us by providing their market data!

R2Pleasent Gold has provided us with numbers in the following formats / definitions:

OSRS Gold Wholesale: This is the price that gold shops pay for gold from other players.  If you went to their website and asked to sell them gold, this is the price they would offer on average.

OSRS Gold Retail: This is the price that gold shops list their gold at.  So you'd be able to see this just by visiting their website.  Obviously this is going to be higher than wholesale price.

The same idea for RS3 Gold.

Our Findings

So, we've established that the OSRS/RS3 conversion rate was changing rapidly after Mobile release.  This continued until about January 2019.  That's when the RS3 price started catching up again to OSRS.  Since Jan 2019, the price went from about 9M RS3 = 1M OSRS, all the way down to today when about 5.8M RS3 = 1M OSRS.  That's a drop of nearly 35%!

The gray market suffered a similar fate.  Wholesale OSRS rates went up above 0.8/M in November/December 2019.  Today, they are as low as 0.55.  A very similar drop, this time about 30%.  So we can see that RS3 prices have actually remained almost flat throughout this entire year.  The market for OSRS has fluctuated wildly, and to this day continues a downward trend.  It is slightly surprising, and suggests that gold is entering the market at a much higher rate over the past 6 months.

OSRS Gold Prices in the Future

We think the prices should start leveling out soon for OSRS Gold.  We don't expect the prices to go much lower than 0.55 wholesale.  It really depends on the supply of course.  If there are some methods that are introducing huge amounts of gold into the Runescape community, then prices will keep dropping.  Hopefully this is not the case!  We'd love to see a stable gold price for the rest of 2019.  

Another update will come next month.  Until then, may your banks be full, my friends.